BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  19A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012

800 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012

 

…ERNESTO EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF

HONDURAS TONIGHT…

 

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION

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LOCATION…15.2N 81.0W

ABOUT 145 MI…235 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER

ABOUT 380 MI…610 KM E OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1003 MB…29.62 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

 

NONE.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD

TO PUNTA SAL…INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS

 

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO PUNTA GRUESA

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* GRAND CAYMAN

* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAL TO THE

HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER

* THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO

TULUM

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24

TO 36 HOURS.

 

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS

BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS…CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR

DANGEROUS.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

 

INTERESTS IN BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO. A

HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS AREA LATER THIS MORNING.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

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AT 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 81.0 WEST. ERNESTO IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY…AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED

TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE

CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OF JUST NORTH OF THE

NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST

COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH…85 KM/H…WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48

HOURS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES…205 KM

FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB…29.62 INCHES.

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM

WARNING AREA ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AND

ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY…

WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

 

RAINFALL…ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS…WITH

ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES

ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.